Orsini: “Putin emerges enormously strengthened. He took a test”

Orsini: “Putin emerges enormously strengthened. He took a test”

“Putin emerges enormously strengthened. He took a test, no one tried to assassinate him, no one tried to overthrow him, the army rallied around the president. Putin managed the situation with very authoritative leadership. Now there may be tragic consequences for the war." Professor Alessandro Orsini believes that Vladimir Putin will emerge stronger “enormously” laid down by the story linked to Evgeny Prigozhin's Wagner protest.

The mercenaries marched towards Moscow before stopping 200 km from the capital. “The Russians, according to the Western narrative, should have taken to the streets. It didn't happen. Prigozhin offered the Russians a unique opportunity to overthrow Putin and no one took to the streets. This can be considered a test of the trust Putin enjoys among the population and among the leaders of the state,” says Orsini, professor of sociology of international terrorism, in Cartabianca.

“Prigozhin is completely unreliable, what he says he says to save his own life“, he adds, referring to Prigozhin's version that declassified the insurrection "protest".

“His reconstruction of the facts is that he had no intention of carrying out a military coup. As a scholar I don't have enough information. I am inclined to believe that Prigozhin realized that he remained completely isolated, Putin had a united ruling class around him, no one tried to assassinate him, the army remained united next to Putin. It is possible that Prigozhin tried to carry out a military coup and is now telling another story so as not to be killed. It is possible that Prigozhin did not want to start a coup, but events made his action such. He fired on Russian soldiers and apparently shot down a plane. He behaved like someone who started a military coup attempt.", says Orsini.

“The big conflict was not between Prigozhin and Putin but between Prigozhin and the Defense Minister, Shoigu. What will happen to the head of Wagner? I don't think it's convenient for Putin to assassinate him now, maybe he will do it later. The elimination of Prigozhin at this time would be detrimental to Russia, also given Wagner's role in Africa", adds.

The events of the last week "will have very tragic consequences" on the war. “Putin has confirmed that NATO in Ukraine represents an existential threat to Russia. What we saw with Prigozhin is the danger of civil war: Putin cannot lose the war in Ukraine. The war between Russia and Ukraine ended after 3 weeks, it was won by Russia. Then the war between Russia and NATO began… Now Putin can maintain the same strategy by focusing on attrition and everything remains as it is. Or, if he fears being overthrown, Putin gives impetus to a strong acceleration with a hitherto unknown use of military aviation and therefore with the definitive devastation of Ukraine."