Meloni in Warsaw to strengthen ties with Morawiecki

Meloni in Warsaw to strengthen ties with Morawiecki

Giorgia Meloni will be in Warsaw today to strengthen ties with a historic ally like the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, to which it is linked by the hard line against migrants, support for Ukraine and belonging to the same European family as the Conservatives. But the prime minister is also fresh from an EU summit where she showed off - precisely on immigration - a very different pragmatism compared to the Poles of Law and Justice, who continue to get in the way on principle (and because they are in the election campaign).

And this is a key to understanding what is agitating the EPP and the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, both desperately seeking a majority with which to continue to command in Europe even after the 2024 elections. While "we exclude any alliance with the Poles of Law and Justice, at odds with the rest of Europe for years due to the very serious damage to the rule of law and enemies of our allies of Civic Platform", as an authoritative EPP source recalls, “with Meloni the situation is different”.
In recent days, the Luxembourg parliamentarian Christophe Hansense complained about the silence regarding future, possible liaisons between the EPP and Meloni: “Weber should finally clarify what he means when he talks about a collaboration with FdI. Because the discussion never took place in the EPP."

But it is also true that the question posed by the exponent of the German CSU in view of the 2024 European Championships is not a strange one. The EPP will emerge weakened by the electoral challenge and must find a way to remain in power. And one cannot guess the point of failure of the discussion if one does not take into account the obstacle course of his party, the CDU/CSU, the majority shareholder of the EPP. The German conservatives face a series of treacherous electoral appointments in the next 18 months that risk making Von der Leyen's race more complicated.

In Berlin, Matteo Salvini's proposal for a European center-right that includes the EPP, Le Pen and the AfD is considered a carnival.

The "cordon sanitaire" of the German CDU/CSU is not only towards the AfD, a party with such anti-democratic impulses that it has been under observation by the secret services for years. The party led by Friedrich Merz also considers Le Pen a red rag. And even Salvini's League, as long as he is the leader and not one of the "pragmatic" exponents that German conservatives have always looked at with interest such as Giancarlo Giorgetti or governors and mayors of the Northern regions.

On Meloni, the opinions are more nuanced. And it happened between Von der Leyen and Meloni “excellent harmony”, they argue from the CDU. The Italian Prime Minister will bring to the EU Parliament a large group of MEPs, between 20 and 30, who could be useful both to guarantee Von der Leyen the vote for re-election and to sporadically expand, in the future, the majority that will emerge from the European polls.
In fact, no one in the EPP missed the change in direction of the German CDU.

The leader, Friedrich Merz, declared the Greens the "main political opponent". The head of the German conservatives has attracted the ire of a section of the party, which is opposed to mimicking the ultra-right AfD, which for years has launched an attack on what it considers an anthropological enemy. But the peaks in the AfD polls, given between 17 and 20%, force the CDU/CSU to position itself with respect to the current unpopular choices of the Scholz government which are partly attributable to the push of the Greens.
The truth is that this "anti-green" sentiment has also infected the EPP for some time. Which is opposing the Green deal: the "Law on the restoration of nature" was sensationally rejected also thanks to the votes of the EPP.

“A terrible proposal”, declared the German Christine Schneider. Among the Popular Party, the executive led by Von der Leyen (long since renamed the "Timmermanns Commission") is perceived as too influenced by socialists and greens.

However, Von der Leyen's strength in her own party, the CDU, lies precisely in having always been considered an outsider; “the best premise for winning large majorities”, comments a German source. If the CDU/CSU, however, faces the next electoral challenges in the three Eastern lands where the AfD fluctuates between 20 and 30% by unleashing its weapon against the Greens, it risks, in theory, weakening its Spitzenkandidatin. The effort, for the EPP and for Von der Leyen herself, will therefore have to be to guarantee majorities “creative” to the EU Parliament that they can do without the Greens. This is why the popular people look with interest at FdI, at the Czech conservatives, but also at what is happening in Spain, and in particular at Vox. Which, as is known, is already part of the European Conservatives, and not the "pariahs" of Salvini and Le Pen's IDV.