NATO, a nuclear planning meeting scheduled for today

NATO, a nuclear planning meeting scheduled for today

Defense ministers make the cut to NATO before the Vilnius summit on 11-12 July, tangibly strengthen support for Ukraine and lay the foundations for nuclear deterrence. The Secretary of the Pentagon Lloyd Austin presided in Brussels - on 14 June 2023 - the 13th meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine – fifty countries present – ​​before meeting with their Alliance counterparts for a summit.

Support for Kiev is reaffirmed in the numbers and war equipment that the West delivers to Ukraine, Leopard tanks from Germany and Poland, ammunition for missile defense from Canada and other ammunition from Norway, the training of pilots in the use of fighters and F16s in the coalition led by the Netherlands and Denmark. And there is, in Austin's final comment, also an appreciation to Italy for the last one «tranche of weapons with highly critical capabilities».

The head of the Pentagon is the spokesperson for the Biden administration's vision, namely that the delivery of weapons is needed to counter Russia in the short term – or prevail on the battlefield – but above all it serves to build a future deterrent device.

For this Austin talks about «marathon and not sprint» when referring to the ongoing war. There is room for some reflections on the counteroffensive. Washington has taken up the weapon of prudence, the Chief of Staff Mark Milley reiterates the concept of the unpredictability of every conflict, but Austin says that «Ukrainian forces have demonstrated great professional skills and we will continue to give support to Kiev».

On the counteroffensive itself and that number, 100 square kilometers reconquered in the Ukrainian version, Austin does not dwell faithful to the idea of ​​the conflict as a marathon. And he doesn't even give too much weight to the destruction of Leopard and Bradley, as evidenced by the photos. At most they are events that allow Milley to say that "The fight will be very violent and tough and will probably last a considerable length of time."
For this you need weapons and a constant supply line.

The American and European military industries are under pressure, governments are asking for more production both to support Kiev's effort and to keep national arsenals replenished. In this regard, Thales, a French giant in the military industry, is said to be about to resume production of the forgotten Starstreak, long-range shoulder-fired missiles capable of exceeding the sound barrier three times.

There are two issues to resolve: the first concerns the new secretary general of the Alliance; the second the future of Ukraine if and when within NATO. On the first front, negotiations continue, it is not excluded that Jens Stoltenberg could ultimately agree to stay for another 4 years. In Washington, informally, they repeat that "We will arrive in Vilnius with a name".

However, the point that will test the unity of the Alliance is the fate of Kiev. Zelensky would like the maximum, that is, to present his candidacy for entry and his Defense Minister, reznikov during the NATO-Ukraine Council, he said: «We are already there to act as NATO's eastern front and protect democracy». Americans are faithful to the political line of "sooner or later you will come in", without however setting either a timing or an end to the process. The spirit remains that of Bucharest 2008, the "open doors" policy.

The member countries are divided, the East would like to accelerate, the South and West block niche. Biden has always shown perplexity when faced with any move that could trigger an escalation and NATO's embrace of Kiev - with consequent Article 5 to be respected - would be the ultimate "provocation" for Putin.

A meeting between the NATO defense ministers is scheduled for today “in the NATO nuclear planning group, to ensure that our nuclear deterrence remains safe and effective, in a more dangerous world”. The secretary general of the Atlantic Alliance says so Jens Stoltenberg, on the sidelines of the Ministerial underway in Brussels.

“We naturally monitor what Russia does – teacher – so far we have not seen any changes in their nuclear posture that require changes in our posture. But, at the same time, we see a pattern, in which Moscow invests heavily in new, modern nuclear capabilities, and deploys more nuclear capabilities, including near NATO borders. NATO responded by increasing the level of readiness, increasing its presence in the eastern part of the Alliance. We will continue to monitor what is needed and how Russia's nuclear posture changes.".