Tension in the Middle East: Israel and Iran towards an open conflict. Nasrallah's funeral in Tehran.

In recent days, tensions in the Middle East have reached critical levels. A series of events have triggered an escalation of violence and clashes, involving Israel, Iran, Hezbollah and other regional actors.

The Iranian Threat and Israel's Response

After the attack Iran's missile strike on Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called an emergency consultation on national security, despite the coincidence with the Jewish New Year. Israel promised a “tough response,” coordinated with the United States, with the aim of inflicting a “high price” on the ayatollahs’ regime. According to local sources, the Israeli response should be implemented “within days.”

Joint action between Israel and the United States could involve targeted attacks on Iranian oil installations, a strategy that risks having serious economic and geopolitical repercussions. This prospect has already had an impact on the markets: oil prices in New York rose 4,15% to $73,01 a barrel.

Funeral of Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran

Meanwhile, the situation is further complicated by the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the historic leader of Hezbollah, who was killed last Friday in Beirut in an Israeli air strike. Nasrallah's funeral will be held tomorrow in Tehran, under the leadership of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The ceremony, scheduled to take place in the mausoleum of Imam Khomeini, is sure to draw a huge crowd and will be a moment of high tension.

La Nasrallah's death has opened a power vacuum within Hezbollah, which could trigger a new wave of attacks and reprisals. Israel, aware of the risk, has already launched a targeted military campaign against Hezbollah installations and members in southern Lebanon, hitting about 200 targets including weapons depots, observation posts and terrorists.

The Role of Hezbollah and South Lebanon

Israel reiterated that it will not allow Hezbollah to reestablish its bases in southern Lebanon, a historically contested and strategically crucial region for both sides. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) Chief of Staff said that the Israeli military will do everything necessary to prevent Hezbollah's return to the area.

The Israeli army has also ordered the evacuation of several villages and towns north of the Litani River, including Nabatieh, a major population center in southern Lebanon. The goal is to prevent civilians from getting caught up in the fighting, but the humanitarian situation risks becoming increasingly dire as the fighting intensifies.

Attacks and Retaliation: Hezbollah, Golan and Galilee

In response to the Israeli attacks, Hezbollah has launched more than 50 rockets and two drones into northern Israel, concentrating its fire on the Galilee. Although there have been no casualties so far, the military escalation continues. Israel has responded by striking Hezbollah's intelligence headquarters in Beirut and has shot down several drones launched by the Shiite group, some of which also came from Yemen, where the Houthis, pro-Iranian militia, have claimed responsibility for the launch.

Another key moment was the IDF's killing of Khider al Shaebia, a Hezbollah commander responsible for an attack in July that killed 12 Druze children in northern Israel. This episode strengthened Israel's resolve to continue the operation against Hezbollah.

Iran and the United States: The End of Unilateral Self-Regulation

As military tensions escalate, Iran has sent a message to the United States via Qatar, saying the “phase of unilateral self-restraint” is over. Tehran has threatened an “unconventional response” to any further Israeli attacks, including targeting Israeli infrastructure.

The Biden administration, for its part, has said it is ready to discuss with Israel a possible attack on Iranian oil installations, signaling close cooperation between the two countries at this delicate stage. Biden, however, downplayed the immediate possibility of an Israeli response, saying that “nothing will happen today.” However, the threat of escalation remains high.

Geopolitical Implications: Risk of a Regional Conflict

The current situation risks spiraling into a large-scale regional conflict, involving not only Israel and Iran, but also actors such as Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. International concerns are growing, with the G7 recently condemning the Iranian attack on Israel, calling it “irresponsible”. Iran, for its part, accused the G7 of being “biased”, highlighting once again the complexity of the situation.

Evacuation of Italians from Beirut

In this climate of uncertainty and violence, the Italian government has mobilized to evacuate its citizens from the region. A charter flight organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is scheduled for this evening from Beirut to Rome, with the aim of safely transferring approximately 180 Italians. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani confirmed that further measures are being considered to guarantee the safety of compatriots, including through commercial flights.

The situation in the Middle East remains extremely volatile, with the real risk of an escalation that could involve multiple regional and international actors. The axis between Israel and the United States appears solid, but the threat of an unconventional Iranian response increases the risk of a full-scale conflict. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, weakened by the death of Nasrallah, could seek to reassert itself with new attacks, while the civilian population of southern Lebanon finds itself trapped in an increasingly militarized area.

The Middle East is at a crossroads: either a diplomatic solution, involving the international community, or an escalation of violence that could have devastating consequences for the entire region.