US-Venezuela, Trump weighs all options: "Maduro? I'll probably talk to him, but I'm not ruling out any option."

Relations between the United States and Venezuela are once again heating up. From his Oval Office, Donald Trump announced that he "will likely speak with Nicolás Maduro," while specifying that he did not rule out any options regarding the Venezuelan crisis, including military action. This stance has been shaking international politics for days, while Caracas warns that armed intervention would represent "the political end" for the American president.

Dialogue with Maduro? Trump: "We'll see how it goes."

The American president said he was open to possible talks with Maduro: "We could have some discussions and we'll see how it goes. They would like to talk to us," he said. According to the Wall Street Journal, the White House has not yet confirmed details of the ongoing contacts.

At the same time, Washington continues to exert pressure on the Venezuelan regime. The State Department announced its decision to designate the Cartel de los Soles—which the US believes is led by Maduro himself and senior officials in Caracas—as a foreign terrorist organization. This is a very serious accusation that, if formalized, would increase the international legitimacy of any potential US intervention, even if limited.

While diplomatic and military options are being considered, the US Southern Command has confirmed the presence of the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford in the Caribbean Sea, together with the escorting air and naval vessels, for operations against "transnational organized crime" and "narcoterrorism".

In the president's view, the threat of drug trafficking—which links Venezuela, the Caribbean, and Mexico—is a unique component of the same national security problem.

Trump explained that he had instructed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to brief Congress on the ongoing missions: "We don't have to get their approval, but informing them is a good thing."

Maduro: "An attack would be the end of Trump's political career."

The Venezuelan president's response came in statements reported by the Efe news agency. Maduro, whom Washington calls the leader of a "narco-state," warned Trump that military intervention in Venezuela would mark the American president's "political end."

At the same time, however, Maduro is open to dialogue: "A face-to-face meeting is possible. Anyone who wants to talk will always find us people who will speak their minds. Only through diplomacy can we find common ground."

Pentagon assessments: four possible scenarios

According to information confirmed by CNN, the US administration is evaluating four possible strategies, including the direct capture of Maduro, a rapid and targeted mission, led by special forces such as Delta Force, aimed at arresting the Venezuelan president and the leaders of his regime.

Another option could be limited attacks on Venezuelan territory, such as precision operations against military facilities or drug-related depots, without a ground invasion. This strategy could involve the CIA, special forces, and intelligence agencies.

Extreme pressure from the sea is also being considered, which would lead to increased interventions against suspicious vessels in the Caribbean Sea and a strengthening of the US military presence in regional waters.

And finally, the last option is to engage in new diplomatic negotiations, but this is a less likely scenario. It provides a way out for Maduro and his loyalists to turn to allies like Russia, Cuba, Turkey, or Azerbaijan. This is a path already attempted by the Democrats, with no concrete results.

What would happen without Maduro? The risk of a power vacuum.

The first option, however, would have to take into account Venezuela's internal problems should Nicolás Maduro's departure occur. For many analysts, the Chavista leader—though contested, weakened, and isolated internationally—now represents a sort of unifying force among the many souls of Venezuelan power.

Experts explain that, without Maduro, the country risks finding itself in an even more chaotic situation. First, because the army could decide to take direct control, imposing a transition led by the armed forces.

Then there would be the factions of Chavismo, a complex mosaic of political, economic, and military interests. Although often competing with each other, these factions have managed to coexist precisely thanks to the balance Maduro has built over the years. Without his mediating influence, these currents could enter into open conflict, opening the way for much more serious scenarios of instability.

Further complicating the situation are armed groups and criminal organizations entrenched in the region. In a power vacuum, these groups could exploit the uncertainty to strengthen themselves, expand local control, or even compete for urban and rural land.

The Venezuelan opposition, despite having presented plans for a rapid transition—such as that announced by presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez—would be unlikely to govern without massive support from the United States.

As a Western diplomat told CNN, "Whether you like it or not, Maduro is the guarantor of balance.": a phrase that perfectly sums up the complexity of the situation. For many Venezuelans, the question isn't just how to replace him, but above all what would happen the day after his fall.

American domestic politics: a minefield

A military intervention in Venezuela risks undermining the electoral coalition that supported Trump, which was also based on the promise not to drag the US into new wars.

A Republican member of Congress told CNN: "Americans did not vote for Trump to drag the country into a protracted conflict in Latin America."

Other Republicans, however, believe that Trump would risk losing credibility if he did not continue his hard line against Maduro.

Regional concerns

The rising tension is also affecting neighboring countries. Trinidad and Tobago has denied that the US is using its territory to prepare attacks, but has confirmed the presence of Marine Corps exercises. Other governments in the region fear a conflict that could destabilize the entire Caribbean region.

The crisis, therefore, remains fluid and constantly evolving. Washington's next moves—including military considerations, electoral considerations, and international pressure—will be crucial to understanding which path will prevail.