US tariffs: Italian and European exports at risk, the EU's challenge to protect the single market
The inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States has opened up scenarios of great economic uncertainty at a global level. One of the most debated issues concerns the repercussions of duties on European products announced during the presidential election campaign. According to the analysis of Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, such measures could trigger a contraction of European economic growth, accompanied however by a decrease in inflation.
The impact of tariffs on European exports
Cipollone emphasizes that the tariffs pose a direct threat to European exports, in particular for irtrade with the United States, a fundamental outlet market for many countries, including Italy. “A duty imposed on our exports would reduce exports and, if duties against China are applied, the Chinese production surplus could flow into European markets, increasing competition.“, he said. This situation could make it more difficult for European companies to exploit foreign demand and generate more competition on the domestic market.
The scenario is even more complex considering the delicate moment of the European economy, which is struggling to emerge from a period of stagnant growth. Sectors such as fashion, furniture and metals, than in Italy are heavily dependent on exports to the US, they could suffer significant losses.
Effects on inflation and the domestic market
US tariffs could also indirectly impact inflation in Europe.interest rate hike in the United States and the consequent strengthening of the dollar could cause aacceleration of European inflation, linked to the increase in import prices.
The repercussions on the Italian market
According to a study by Confartigianato, Italy would be one of the European countries most affected by US tariffs, with an estimated loss of over 11 billion in exports to the US. The most vulnerable sectors include fashion, furniture, jewelry and eyewear, characterized by a strong presence of micro and small businesses. In 2024, the United States was the second most important market for Italy, with exports of 66,4 billion euros, driven by pharmaceuticals (+19,5%), food (+18%) and electrical appliances (+12,1%).
The regions most exposed to this crisis are Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Veneto and Piedmont, which together contribute a significant share of Italian exports to the United States.
Strategies to face the challenge
In this context of uncertainty, Cipollone and other experts highlight the need to strengthen the European single market to support the competitiveness of businesses. "We are a huge market that could easily live on its own. We need to fully exploit the potential of the single market and reduce fragmentation, especially in the energy sectors.“, the expert said
Marco Granelli, president of Confartigianato, also underlines the importance of focusing on distinctive quality of Made in Italy to compete on international markets. Thehigh quality of Italian manufacturing represents a competitive advantage which can be further enhanced to face the challenges imposed by new global economic scenarios.
An opportunity to rethink Europe
The crisis also represents an opportunity for the European Union to review its economic and industrial policies. “Reforms are always expensive, but today we are faced with a formidable shock that forces us to sit around a table to rethink some priorities.“, concluded Cipollone. Strengthening European resilience and fostering growth through investments in infrastructure, research and development could be the long-term answer for make Europe less vulnerable to protectionist policies and more economically autonomous.
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