Trump: "The war can end." Summit with Putin in Budapest at the end of October.

"I think we'll get there. We're on the road to an agreement. If we don't, many will pay a heavy price." Donald Trump shows cautious optimism ahead of meeting with Vladimir Putin, of which the foreign ministers Marco Rubio and Sergei Lavrov will meet on Thursday, following their phone call with the Kremlin on Monday.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto is expected in Washington to finalise the details of the meeting, for the environment, and the Bulgaria offered the Russians a safe air corridor to allow Putin to reach Budapest while evading the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant. “We are ready to collaborate for peace”, said Szijjarto, while the prime minister Viktor Orban called the initiative "a great opportunity for Europe to return to the forefront.".

But the Trump's message remains ambiguousSpeaking at the White House alongside Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, he said that “Ukraine could still win, but I don't think they will. Anything could happen.” Words that reflect the dual track on which the White House is moving: on the one hand the pressure for a truce, on the other the freezing of military aid.

According to American sources, the president reportedly suggested to Zelensky to "reach a compromise", before surrendering Donbass, then agreeing to stop the conflict on the front line, without further security guarantees. The hypothesis, leaked after a tense meeting in the Oval Office, has caused concern in European capitals.

Zelensky he firmly rejected the idea. “Putin is not ready for peace”, said the Ukrainian leader, stressing that “any proposal to freeze would mean admitting defeat.”

Meantime Brussels is moving. The EU Council on Thursday will discuss the use of frozen Russian assets to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, along with a new sanctions package after the nineteenth and the green light on the stop to gas and LNG from Moscow. The Commission also preliminary examination for the opening of accession negotiations with Kiev completed, at a time when Europe is trying to reaffirm its political unity in the face of the return of the American-Russian bloc.

Meanwhile, in Budapest, the possible impact of the summit is being considered.The meeting, which would follow the one in August in Alaska, would mark the Putin's return to European soil after more than two years. A gesture that, according to observers, could further split the Western Front, especially if the Kremlin should present it as a “diplomatic victory”.

Trump, aware of what was at stake, tries to present himself as the only leader capable of “stopping the war in 24 hours”, as he repeatedly promised during his election campaign. But the apparent certainty leaves room for many unknowns.

The axis between Washington and Moscow remains fragile, and minimal mutual trust. Behind the soothing phrases, months of sanctions, threats and cross-accusations weigh heavily. To date, the “road to peace” evoked by Trump It appears more like a tactical truce than a real plan.

And the Budapest summit, if it ever takes place, could become the first test of a new balance, but still everything to be built.