Syria at the Crossroads: Rebels in Damascus and Assad’s Fate.

Syria, ravaged by a civil war that has morphed into a global conflict on its soil for nearly 14 years, is now at a crucial moment. Rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have reached Damascus, marking a turning point in the fight against Bashar al-Assad's regime. Rebel forces say they have taken control of Sednaya prison and other strategic facilities, while government troops appear to be retreating.

The Fall of the Regime: A Rais on the Run

President Assad, in power for over 25 years after inheriting the leadership from his father Hafez, has disappeared from the public scene. Several international sources locate him in Tehran or even Moscow, while his office denies the rumors, saying he is still in the capital. However, his physical and political absence fuels suspicions of a definitive escape.

A Country in Flames: The March of the Rebels

The rebels’ rapid advance began in the Idlib region, bordering Turkey, and quickly overwhelmed government defenses in Aleppo, Hama, and Homs. The conquest of Homs, a crossroads city in the country, was described as “historic” by HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Now, the rebels are at the gates of Damascus and have taken control of political prisons where dissidents and activists, many of whom have been missing for decades, were held.

The retreat of Assad's allies: Russia and Iran

The weakening of Assad's allies, Moscow and Tehran, has accelerated the regime's collapse. Both countries, weakened by internal economic crises, have reduced their military support. Russia, which had saved Assad in 2015 with a decisive intervention, now seems reluctant to engage further. Iran has also avoided sending ground troops, limiting itself to strategic support.

Tartus's Crucial Role and the Risk for Putin

The Tartus naval base is Russia's only access point to the Mediterranean and a pillar of Moscow's military strategy. The loss of Tartus and Assad's Alawite regime would mark a geopolitical defeat for Russia, while strengthening the position of Saudi Arabia, Iran's major rival in the region.

Towards Geneva: The prospect of peace talks

Meanwhile, in Doha, an emergency meeting was held between representatives of Russia, Iran, Turkey and UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen. From this meeting and a subsequent summit of Western powers, a proposal emerged to start peace talks in Geneva. The aim is to facilitate a political transition involving members of the Syrian regime not colluding with Assad and representatives of the opposition, including members of the rebel forces.

Although HTS is considered a terrorist group by several Western powers, some of its smaller allies could be allowed to the negotiating table to avoid further bloodshed and ensure future stability.

An uncertain future for Syria

Syria is at a crossroads. The fall of Assad seems increasingly likely, but the country risks falling into chaos if an inclusive political agreement is not reached. The international community, divided between supporters and opponents of the regime, is called upon to play a decisive role in avoiding the collapse of the state and promoting a reconstruction that takes into account the country's deep ethnic and religious divisions.

As the rebels consolidate their gains, Syria enters a new phase in its history, with the fate of millions of people still hanging in a fragile balance.