Moscow dictates the terms: "Donbass to Russia, Ukrainian troops out." Trump intensifies pressure as European leaders meet with envoy Witkoff in Berlin.

Moscow is raising the bar for a truce in Ukraine: no ceasefire will be possible as long as Kiev's army remains in Donbas. The line is being laid out by Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin's powerful diplomatic advisor, who reiterates that, for the Kremlin, the eastern Ukrainian region must be effectively "cleared" of Ukrainian forces before any agreement is reached. Only after a complete withdrawal, he explains, can a cessation of hostilities be discussed, with the territory placed under full Russian control and a presence of Moscow security forces—police and National Guard—in place of regular troops.

“All of Donbass is Russia”: the Kremlin’s legal claim.

The Russian position is not only military, but also—in the Kremlin's narrative—constitutional. Ushakov insists that "all of Donbas belongs to the Russian Federation according to the Russian Constitution," recalling the sham referendums and unilateral annexations of 2022–2023, never recognized by the international community. On this basis, Moscow fundamentally rejects Volodymyr Zelensky's idea of ​​a Ukrainian referendum on the fate of the occupied territories: for the Kremlin, there is nothing to put to the vote of Ukrainian citizens, because Donbas, in its view, is already Russia in all respects.

The “free economic zone” and the demilitarized Donbass according to Moscow.

In recent hours, the possibility has emerged, discussed between Kiev, Washington, and European capitals, of transforming part of Donbas still controlled by Ukraine into a sort of demilitarized "free economic zone." Zelensky confirmed that he is under strong US pressure to consider withdrawing his troops from that area in exchange for a new security structure and investment. Ushakov, however, clarified that, even in a scenario without regular armies, Moscow still envisions a widespread presence of its own security forces on the ground, charged with "maintaining order" and organizing civilian life. This idea, in Kiev's eyes, would be tantamount to legalizing Russian occupation with a simple change of uniform.

Witkoff in Berlin, Trump's pressure on Kiev and its allies.

To push for an agreement by the end of the year, US President Donald Trump has sent his special envoy Steve Witkoff to Europe. After a series of meetings with Putin in Moscow and with Ukrainian negotiators in the United States, Witkoff is expected in Berlin for talks with Zelensky and key European leaders, including those of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. The White House presents the mission as a crucial step in overcoming Kiev's resistance to territorial concessions and harmonizing the position of European allies with that of Washington. Trump has hinted that US participation in the upcoming meetings will depend on the "concrete possibility" of reaching an agreement, signaling growing impatience with a war that has now lasted nearly four years.

The heart of the dispute: territories in exchange for a truce.

The slow and fragile nature of the negotiations hinges on the issue of territorial concessions. According to reports from US and European media, the draft compromise would include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the portion of the Donetsk region still under their control, without a parallel structural withdrawal of Russian forces from the areas of Donbas already occupied. In exchange, Moscow would consider a limited disengagement in parts of the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, while maintaining a significant territorial salient in Kherson and Zaporizhia, crucial for controlling the land corridor to Crimea. For Kiev, which has fought hard to defend every kilometer of territory and paid a high human price, this would mean accepting a territorial mutilation under the threat of losing American military and financial support.

The possibility of a referendum and the risk of a peace that is impossible to "sell".

Within Ukraine, Zelensky has hinted at the possibility of holding a referendum on any territorial concessions, particularly in Donbas, but the political window for such a vote is extremely narrow. Polls and independent analyses indicate a large majority opposed to formally ceding portions of territory to Moscow after years of sacrifice and bombing. Ushakov's position, declaring the Russian status of Donbas "non-negotiable" and rejecting the very idea of ​​a vote in Ukraine, makes it even more difficult for Zelensky to imagine a way out that doesn't resemble capitulation. The Ukrainian president is trying to buy time by amending the American plan and demanding stronger security guarantees, but he finds himself caught between pressure from allies, military needs on the ground, and a public unwilling to forgive concessions perceived as humiliating.

“Quasi-NATO” security guarantees and the European Union charter.

To make this prospect more palatable, Washington is offering security guarantees that, according to US sources, would be "similar to NATO's Article 5," meaning a binding commitment to defend Ukraine in the event of renewed aggression, subject to Congressional approval. The plan envisages an automatic or semi-automatic response mechanism in the event of Russian attacks, accompanied by a massive long-term military assistance and training package. On the European front, working documents are circulating the idea—optimistic and currently politically uncertain—of a drastic acceleration of Ukraine's EU accession process, with 2027 as the symbolic date for full integration. This prospect, however, faces opposition from some member states, such as Hungary, and doubts from governments fearful of importing a frozen conflict and a still economically unstable country into the heart of the Union.

The EU freezes €210 billion, Rome puts the brakes on the use of Russian assets.

Meanwhile, Brussels has taken an unprecedented step: the indefinite freezing of approximately €210 billion in Russian assets held in the EU, largely at Euroclear. The measure aims to prevent the renewal of sanctions from being challenged every six months by governments closer to Moscow, and it paves the way for a large loan to Ukraine guaranteed by the profits generated by these assets. Twenty-five countries voted in favor; Hungary and Slovakia opposed. Belgium, which fears being exposed to billion-dollar lawsuits if Russia were to recover part of the funds, and now Italy—joined by Malta and Bulgaria—are pushing for a "Plan B": possibly resorting to common European debt.

On the other hand, the Russian Central Bank has announced its intention to sue the Belgian-based financial group Euroclear, alleging that Euroclear's actions have caused significant damage and prevented it from managing its funds and securities. In its statements, the central bank denounces as "illegal and contrary to international law" all mechanisms for the direct or indirect use of Bank of Russia's assets, citing a violation of the principle of sovereign immunity.

Odessa in the dark: the war on the ground does not stop.

While diplomats and officials debate maps and clauses, the war continues to severely impact civilians. On the night of December 12-13, Odessa and other Ukrainian regions were targeted by heavy airstrikes, with a combination of drones and missiles targeting energy, port, and industrial infrastructure. Several areas of the city and the region reported prolonged blackouts, damage to electrical and water systems, and fires in civilian buildings and warehouses.

Ukraine's response: cross-border drones and attacks on Russia's oil industry.

Kiev, for its part, continues to strike deep into Russian territory with swarms of drones, often targeting refineries, fuel depots, and energy infrastructure that fuel the Kremlin's war machine. In the last few hours, a drone attack in the Saratov region has killed civilians, while Russian authorities have claimed responsibility for downing dozens of unmanned aerial vehicles in various areas, from Crimea to the regions of Rostov, Voronezh, and Belgorod.